I've seen variations of the hype curve doing the rounds on the Interweb and thought I'd see if I could make a version suitable for Education Technology.
Technology that has yet to make an impact in Education but looks likely to do so. These items are not necessarily "new", just have not impacted the classroom
Peak of Inflated Expectations
Technology that has made that breakthrough and is constantly in the news as being "the next big thing". Early adopters climb on board here as "it's bound to make a difference".
Trough of Disillusionment
After the initial rosy glow has worn off, early adopters find themselves asking "What now?". People who have yet to adopt find themselves asking "given all the problems, so I?". Some people give up with the technology at this point.
Slope of Enlightenment
When the early problems are ironed out and sufficient people "buy into" the technology, a critical mass of adopters are reached. At this point schools and educators start to believe and accept that implementation is a good thing.
Plateau of Productivity
Here technology has become commonplace. Schools have embedded it to such a degree that people take it for granted.
Cliff of Obsolescence
As technology ages and new initiatives are born, even the most promising tools and tech reach "obsolescence".
There is nothing inevitable about this chart. Technologies may move from Left to Right and enjoy all the up and downs of the hype curve. On the otherhand, a piece of technology may get stuck and never move. For example, gamification has for the last 10 years been pitched as "within the next 2 years", but it seems stuck where it is. Similarly, photocopiers will probably stay at the cusp of obsolescence for the next 20 years.
As always, this is my take on things. If you feel strongly about the chart, please comment and I'll update if needed.